Mid-Season Musings

Finally got a break from work to look around the league. What I noticed...

After 7 years in the minors, Buffalo's Doyle Pellow finally gets his shot and is 2nd in the AL with 12 plus plays.

Three most improved teams (winning % as compared to last year):
1. Salem Goonies (AL West), up 216 points
2. Fresno Grizzlies (NL West) up 190 points
3. Mexico City Desperadoes (NL South) up 166 points

Despite getting rocked by Mexico City and Austin in his last 2 starts, Fresno's Kennie Frascatore is still the runaway leader for NL ROY (12-1, 1.87 ERA, .521 OPS against). Until those last 2 rough outings, he had allowed 2 or fewer runs in 15 of 16 starts. (And I missed him by one damn spot in the Season 11 draft).

It's the Lance Reed Show for AL MVP. The Nashville RF leads the majors in HR's (29), RBI (99), and is 5 points back of D.C.'s Danny Pride and Richmond's Daniel Gallagher (both at .347) for the batting title.

Cleveland closer Roger Lawson is perfect in save oppotunities (21-of-21).

Oakland slugger Joe Rivera looked like he would take over the all-time Belle HR lead from Skip Leon this year. But at 38, Skip is hitting .314 with 8 HR's and 29 RBI for Toledo. Current lifetime HR totals: Skip 620, Joe 605.

AL Cy Young: Jackson's Johnny Collier leads the way in ERA (2.51), but only has 4 wins. That puts 4 guys at the front of a large pack: (9-4, 2.81), Richmond's Charlie Cosby (9-4, 2.81), Billy Brocail (9-2, 2.96) of the Katannas, the Alleghenys' Jung Wanatable (10-4. 3.04), and last year's winner, D.C.'s Rob Workman (11-4, 3.01).

Biggest drops in winning % from last year:
1. San Diego (AL West) - 122 points
2. Oakland (NL West) - 115 points
3. Jackson (AL South) - 106 points
In case you didn't notice, the last 2 were in the WS last season.

AL South Season 15 Preview

Season 14 Recap: Jackson posted its 6th straight 100-win season, taking the division easily for the 9th time in 10 years. Nashville jumped 17 wins (to 92) and Little Rock notched its 8th straight 90-win season, while Richmond fell just below .500 for the first time since Season 11. Nashville lost in the first playoff round; Jackson advanced to the WS but lost to Oakland, 4-2. On the awards front, Little Rock's Geoff Sosa won his 2nd straight FOY.

JACKSON HOLES
Season 14 Rankings: Runs - 5th, Team ERA - 1st, Fielding % - 1st
Is the division gaining on the Holes? Their numbers are pretty much the same across the board as last year, but instead of leading by 10, they trail the Pebbles by 4 and 1/2. They've been a little unlucky - their expected wins is 49 - but they're still solidly in an interesting race.

On offense, Wilson Costello ranks 5th in OPS in the AL; Carlos Manzanillo is 19th and Don Burns is 22nd. 4 starters are in the top 25 in ERA: Johnny Collier (1), Carlos Ramirez (20), Del Mendoz (24), Darryl McCorley (25).


NASHVILLE MUSIC CITY RAMBLERS
Season 14 Rankings: Runs - 4th, Team ERA - 10th, Fielding % - T 6th
The Ramblers are just 2.5 back at the half, thanks to a league-leading 485 runs scored. Rookie CF Emil Morales (.375 OBP) could be on the ROY ballot, 3B Bruce Post is having a second straight career year (.312/17/52), and RF Lance Reed (.340/26/95) is probably the first-half MVP (leads the majors in both HR and RBI).

LITTLE ROCK PEBBLES
Season 14 Rankings: Runs - 10th, Team ERA - 3rd, Fielding % - 13th
FA signee Sammy Reyes seems rejuvenated in Little Rock, leading the team in average (.304), HR's (19) and RBI (60). On the pitching side, Geoff Sosa (2.66, 20-of-23 saves) is up to his usual, while Pedro Gonazalez (8-2, 3.12), Derrek Betemit (8-4, 3.28), and Vin Amaro (6-4, 3.38) form a tough front 3 in the rotation.

RICHMOND POOR MEN
Season 14 Rankings: Runs - 8th, Team ERA - 5th, Fielding % - T 4th
The Poor Men are riding big seasons from some key players into AL South contention. 2B Thomas Cruz wasn't exactly bad last year - 40 points under his career OPS (.872 vs career .912). But he's come roaring back this year (.334/17/72) and could be a factor in the MVP race. RF Daniel Gallagher broke in with an .819 OPD is Season 13, but fell off to .719 last year. So far this looks like his big breakout - at .350/10/50 he's gunning for his first 100 RBI year. With 20 wins and a 3.17 ERA last year, it's hard to criticize Charlie Cosby's Season 14. But he had 12 losses, and a lot of those were poor outings on his part. The ERA's down 60 points (2.57) this year, and he only has 3 losses with 9 wins.

This is the tightest race in Belle at the half, and could go to any of the 4 teams. Look for some major wheeling and dealing at the deadline by AL South teams, with Nashville looking for pitching, Little Rock looking for hitting, and Richmond and Jackson looking for an edge anywhere they can find it.

Draft coverage

The Rule 4 (Amateur) Draft was held for Season 15 in Joey Belle and we saw some interesting results. There were some bargains to be had, and there were some guys taken maybe a touch too early. Here's the first round pick by pick. Grades are given on the basis of the player taken and where he was taken in the draft.



1. Tim Branson, SP, Salem



Branson is a hard-throwing lefthanded starter with two very good pitches (fastball and change-up). He's got excellent control and will eat innings. Not sure he'd be the consensus #1 if all the prospects could be seen, but would be in the discussion at the very least. That'd be good enough for me. Grade: A



2. Marty Coco, 2B, Toledo



Wow. Toledo will have to find him a position (I'd say 2B would probably be a likely candidate), but this guy should be an offensive dynamo. He's got an amazing blend of power, speed, and knowledge of the strike zone. A possible future MVP candidate. Grade: A+



3. Virgil Martinez, RP, Toledo



With the second pick of a back-to-back, Toledo didn't do nearly as well as it did with the first of those picks. Martinez has two great pitches, but his splits indicate to me that he won't dominate. Some people wouldn't take any reliever this high in the draft. Even if you would, I don't think this would be the guy. Grade: D+



4. Craig White, LF, Columbus



White should project out to be dangerous at the plate: a guy who can hit for power and contact. He's got good speed to go with it. Defensively, he's definitely a left fielder. Grade: A



5. Javy Matos, CF, Fresno



Matos is either a future CF or a 2B (if he winds up at second I would lower this grade) who can fly. He doesn't have much power, but he can get on base by a hit or a walk and easily steal second (and maybe third). Possible future stolen base champ. Grade: A



6. Cliff Dillon, 3B, Memphis

Dillon is an interesting prospect. His bat should be average to good (not great), but he's got great knowledge of the strike zone and well above average speed, an odd combination for a 3B (if he ends up there). With his defense, he could end up as a 3B or a corner outfielder- it remains to be seen. Grade: B+

7. Benj Green, SS, Trenton

A nice pick here for Trenton, as Green has a solid bat and projects out defensively (if he reaches his potential) to be a solid (not great) defensive shortstop. As a 3B or a 2B, his bat would be average; at shortstop, he'll be one of the best offensively in the league in 4-5 seasons. Grade: A-

8. Osvaldo Gonzalez, SS, Augusta

Gonzalez has a world of speed but probably doesn't have enough defensively to play shortstop in the big leagues. This devalues him slightly but he'll still be a good offensive player, so his big league team shouldn't have a problem finding a position for him when the time comes. Grade: B+

9. Blaine Knight, RP, Buffalo

Again, this may be too high to pick a reliever, and my sources from inside the Buffalo organization told me they weren't happy about having to take a reliever at #9. But if you feel forced to take a reliever here, Knight isn't a bad guy to take. He's got a live arm and the Wings feel he's a future elite closer. Grade: B+

10. Bonk Young, CF, Indianapolis

A bit of a risky pick, as he is still unsigned and there's been no indication either way as to how the negotiations will end up. Should he sign, Indianapolis would get a guy who isn't outstanding at any one thing but does a lot of things well: hit, hit for power, run, and field. At Oregon St., he was susceptible to the Pac-10's better lefthanded pitchers- that may be his only true flaw. Grade: Inc (hasn't signed yet)

11. Corey Anderson, INF, San Diego

He's listed as a SS but would be a Jose Offerman-like disaster there if the Surf Babies tried him there in the majors. What he can do is hit the ball over the fence- he's got very good power. Other than the premier positions (SS, C, CF), he should be just fine defensively. He'll swing and miss from time to time, but should be a nice addition to a lineup driving in runs. Grade: B

12. Mitch Raben, SS, El Paso

Scouts say he's going to be a lot like Benj Green- should have enough defensively to cover shortstop and be one of the best in the league offensively at that position. The only thing he doesn't do well is run- he's downright slow. But he's got all the other tools offensively, from pure hitting to his eye at the plate and he's an outstanding bunter. Grade: A

13. Freddie Lewis, 2B, Jacksonville

Another player whose signability is in question. Should he decide to sign, his future could be in CF, despite his (even by CF standards) weak arm. He's a solid hitter and a good defender (again, as long as you keep him away from SS or C). Word around the GM meetings is that the Jokers may very well not negotiate aggressively and be willing to take the type D pick if he doesn't sign. Grade: INC

14. Barry Ewing, SS, Portland

My scouts have him as a classic tweener- not good enough to handle shortstop and not a good enough hitter to have great value at any other defensive position. If Portland could get him to play short this is a good pick. He's a guy that does a lot of things fairly well but doesn't stand out, although coaches who have managed against him praise the fact that he's not fast but runs the bases well. Grade: C

15. Tom Hill, SP, Boise

The second starting pitcher taken has to wait until the middle of the first round after Branson went #1. Hill is a hard-throwing lefty who has a nasty slider that lefties have little chance against but righties might be able to see fairly well. Boise management may want to keep an eye on his home run total, but he should end up being an innings-eater at the big league level. Grade: A-

16. Billy Burke, 2B, San Jose

Burke knows the way to San Jose, but he could very well be getting there on foot. A solid (if unspectacular) hitter, he should be able to draw walks and steal some bases once he gets on. He should be a solid, if not Gold-Glove caliber, second baseman. Grade: B

17. Josh Mercedes, RP, Richmond

This pick was a big surprise. Mercedes, drafted #17 overall, probably wasn't worthy of a first round pick. He seems to have all the tools- 3 solid pitches, throws hard, good control- but just can't seem to get guys out. The other knock on him in college was that he couldn't throw everyday- his coaching staff just couldn't seem to get innings out of him. A curious pick. Grade: D

18. Chris Snyder, RP, Jackson

The run on relievers, unusual for a first round, continues. But Jackson, like Buffalo, got a future closer who they could get more than 1 inning at a time out of if necessary. The righthader's forkball seems to neutralize lefties as well as righties. Grade: A-

19. Ivan Ohman, RF, Pittsburgh

Unlike a prototypical right fielder, he's not a slugger- he could hit around 20 homers or so on the big league level. But he's got a good swing and has exceptional speed, so he'll get on base and will always be a threat to run. Grade: A-

20. Adrian Trammell, 2B, Toledo

Not sure what's going on with the negotiations here, but Toledo should have a big-time slugger at 2B with this pick who happens to run well. A good pick if the Mud Hens get him in camp. Grade: Inc

21. Rafael Diaz, INF, Ottawa

Another tweener but with a little more power than Ewing. That may enable him to have some value at 3B or 2B. Another prospect who is solid in all areas but excels in none. Grade: B-

22. Wellington Pizzaro, SP, Rochester

Hard to make heads or tails out of this one. One the plus side, he's got four pitches he can throw for strikes and has outstanding control. But his splits are decidedly average and his manager may have to monitor his pitch counts- he's likely not a 200+ inning type guy. Grade: C

23. Zoltan Steinbach, RP, Little Rock

Interesting pick as the 5th reliever in the 1st round. Steinbach doesn't have as big an upside as Knight or Snyder, but he should be a solid reliever with a higher ceiling than Martinez and
Mercedes. He's a soft-tossing lefty with a very good changeup and spots his cut fastball well to keep lefties off balance. Grade: B

24. Hack Boyle, SP, Nashville

Remains unsigned. If he does put his name on a baseball contract, Nashville gets a solid middle/bottom of the rotation type guy who won't dominate but will be known as an "innings eater". He'll keep the ball on the ground with his good sinker and slider. Grade: Inc

25. Pascual Crespo, SS, Cincinnati

This tiny (5'5, 156 lbs.), still unsigned infielder could very well make the transition to big league shortstop and has way more power than a guy his size should have. But, as could be expected with a guy his size, durability could be an issue. If he stays at short and he signs, this is a very nice pick toward the end of the round. Grade: Inc

26. Randall McCarty, P, Las Vegas

My scouts couldn't find him and he is unsigned.

27. Rick D'Arnaud, SP, Sioux Falls

An innings-eater who is tough on lefties, has 3 big-league grade pitches (including two that are outstanding), and has stayed healthy throughout his amateur career seems too good to be true. The proof that maybe he is comes against righthanded batters- he struggled at Blinn College against them. Grade: B-

28. Jeff Diaz, CF, Austin

Like D'Arnaud, he has a lot of good characteristics and one major (potentally fatal) flaw. He's a good defensive center fielder who can run and knows the strike zone well. He's got decent power to go with it, but his swing is off- he swings and misses too often and may not hit enough to be a viable offensive option. It will be interesting to see how his career goes- Austin may have found a good future CF or wasted a first round pick. Not sure which. Grade: C

29. Jiggs Daniels, P, Jackson

Jackson picks again in the first round and takes another pitcher. He's got two good pitches and one more decent one and is pretty solid on righties. Lefties are another story and he may be limited innings-wise. He's got such good control he could hit the exact center of a plate-glass window blindfolded. Only thing is, the window wouldn't break- he doesn't throw hard. Grade: B-

30. Everett Morris, 2B, Washington

A solid defender and a good offensive option. I don't see him as a future MVP candidate, but those are hard to get this late in the draft. This is a good solid pick at this spot. Grade: A-

31. Daric Whitesell, SP, Indianapolis

Indianapolis's second pick in this round would project out to a #5 starter on a decent to good staff. His splits are mediocre and he only has one legitimate big league pitch. Grade: C+

32. Tony Tejeda, INF, Oakland

This is a high-risk, high-reward pick. Tejeda could have durability and/or injury issues, but if he's healthy and in the lineup, he's a 3B type with tremendous power and a solid overall hitter. Grade: B+

33. Gene Newson, INF, Cleveland

I'm not too high on this pick, even if it is at the end of the first round. Newson is a solid defender who can run, but I don't see him getting on base enough to be a big-time contributor. He's not an outstanding hitter and won't draw enough walks to make up for it. Grade: C+

NL South Season 15 Preview

Season 14 Recap: Austin took the division pretty handily with 102 wins. Mexico City won 86 but missed the playoffs for the first time since Season 7. El Paso regressed to 69 wins, and Memphis committed to rebuilding after the end of the Charleston dynasty. In the playoffs, Austin lost in the second round to Syracuse. The South won no major awards last season.

AUSTIN UNHINGED CHALOUPAS
Season 14 Rankings: Runs - 3rd, Team ERA - 4th, Fielding % - T 4th
Sayonara: none
New Faces: SP Magglio Nunez (via trade)
Rookie Possibilities: none
OUTLOOK: Regarded as an up-and-coming team last year, the pitching staff has totally collapsed to start this year, casting doubt on that assessment. The team ERA is up almost 2 runs a game from last year, with only Jesus Javier and Woody Blair pitching effectively. The offense is adequate, with Pat Ramirez hitting .425 and 3 bench players (Lindsey, Bottalico, Corder) over .400. It's not too late for a turnaround, but the pitching better show signs of life fast. Likely finish: 2nd

MEXICO CITY DESPERADOES
Season 14 Rankings: Runs - 3rd, Team ERA - 4th, Fielding % - T 10th
Sayonara: CF Charles Perez, RP Martin Taylor, SP Cory Mitchell
New Faces: RF Gary Goodwin, CF Wally Reid
Rookie Possibilities: Season 11 1st-rounder Greg Mercedes has landed a short relief job.
OUTLOOK: The Desperadoes sport a new slugging look on offense, with big-name FA's Gary Goodwin and Wally Reid moving into the outfield. That should improve the fortunes of 2 of the best starters in the NL, Pedro Encarnacion and Luis Redondo. So far, though, the good start is due to a rather unheralded bullpen - Thurman, Mercedes, Itou and Manto all have sub - 2.60 ERA's , leading to a 7-2 record in 1-run games. Likely finish: 1st

EL PASO KARN EVIL 9
Season 14 Rankings: Runs - 16th, Team ERA - 7th, Fielding % - T 1st
Sayonara: RF Harry Rodrigo, RP Alex Diaz, SS Lefty Schwartz
New Faces: RP Dutch Pavano, LF Matt Wallace, C Marlon Linden, LR Darren Gibson
Rookie Possibilities: Season 10 2nd-rounder Benito Leon is starting at 2B. Season 12 1st-rounder (#3 overall) Kenneth Scoroposki got the call at Game 24 and has taken over in LF, as has his Season 11 counterpart (#3 overall), Graham Black in CF. Billy Kinney, a 3rd-rounder from Season 10, is getting a rotation shot.
OUTLOOK: The story of the NL so far is El Paso's pitching. Midre Jose and Alex Russell both have 2 complete games already and Vince Cross has been solid. The bullpen doesn't look real imposing but has been especially effective (5 relievers under 3.00 ERA). They've also been the hard-luck team of the league so far - 5 games under .500 with a positive run differential (140-134). Wallace and Scoroposki have been much-needed boosts to the offense. It's early, but I like what they've done...they'll challenge for 2nd. Likely finish: 3rd

MEMPHIS MUDCATS
Season 14 Rankings: Runs - 12th, Team ERA - 16th, Fielding % - T 7th
Sayonara: 2B Sammy Reyes
New Faces: SP Felix Woodward, RF Eduardo Guillen, SP Brian Nakajima, SP Barry Carew
Rookie Possibilities: Season 14 supplemental pick Lonnie Capps is learning SS on the job. 8th-rounder Dave Holtz has the 5th starter job, at least temporarily. Barney Wallace, Joe White and Tim Edwards have landed bullpen roles.
OUTLOOK: Woodward is helping, and Nakajima will, sooner or later. But there are just too many holes top to bottom for Memphis to contend this year. Their offense is last in the league...this is basically still a rebuilding year. Something tells me they signed Woodward and Nakajima just to trade them for prospects at midseason...both a fairly short (3 year) contracts and neigher has a no-trade clause.
Likely finish: 4th

AL East Season 15 Preview

Season 14 Recap: The Katanas won their 9th straight AL East title, although D.C. kept it fairly close and claimed the first wildcard spot. Rochester and Pittsburgh both finished over .500, with the Allegheny's improving by 19 wins. In the playoffs, D.C. was upset in the play-in round by Boise, while Cleveland lost the ALCS to Jackson. In the major awards, D.C.'s Victor Morales won his second MVP, and teammate Rob Workman took both the ROY and Cy Young awards.
CLEVELAND KATANAS
Season 14 Rankings: Runs - 1st, Team ERA - 2nd, Fielding % - T 7th
Sayonara: SP Bucky Alston, SP Edwin Hill
New Faces: none
Rookie Possibilities: C Dizzy Johnson (a Season 10 2nd-rounder) looks like he's won the vR side of the platoon. Season 9 2nd-rounder Alfredo Lopez has a utility role. Thomas Simpkins, a Season 11 1st-rounder, takes over in CF with Bill Priest moving to 2B.
OUTLOOK: The Katanas did some impressive reloading during the offseason, adding rookies Johnson and Simpkins. They'll have their usual fearsome attack and solid pitching, lead by SP's Benitez, Brocail and Torres and closer Roger Lawson. Watch for MVP-caliber seasons from Jacque Fitzgerald (again) and 1B Luke Joyner. Likely finish: 2nd

WASHINGTON D.C. REVENGE
Season 14 Rankings: Runs - 3rd, Team ERA - 4th, Fielding % - T 10th
Sayonara: RP Johnny Whitaker, SP Ray Barnes, LR Luke Moreno
New Faces: RP Alex Diaz
Rookie Possibilities: Season 10 2nd-round pick Brutus McKinley has won the starting C job. Season 8 IFA Alex Baek has nailed down a rotation spot. Rule 5'er Jeff Smith gets a LR job, and Larry Sutton (Season 9 2nd rounder) moves into a setup role. Season 11 1st-rounder (#2 overall), SP Omar Carrasco, will almost certainly get the call shortly, and OF Mark Gang (Season 11 IFA) is ready for ML duty.
OUTLOOK: I think this is the year D.C. finally overtakes Cleveland...they'll probably need a big contribution from Omar Carrasco to do it, and 26 games into the season, Carrasco still sits in AAA - what's up with that. Season 14 phenom Rob Workman is off to a great start, as is their top slugger, Eric Brantley. Reigning MVP Victor Morales has started slowly, but you can bet he'll heat up. Likely finish: 1st

ROCHESTER PHANTOMS
Season 14 Rankings: Runs - 2nd, Team ERA - 13th, Fielding % - T 2nd
Sayonara: RP Randy Seneca, SP Kevin Brooks, CF Wally Reid
New Faces: LR David Valdes, RP Oswaldo Escuela, SP Edwin Hill, SP Hector Martin, 2B Alfonso Cordero
Rookie Possibilities: Season 11 1st-rounder (#10 overall), SP Rich Grace, joins the rotation.
OUTLOOK: The Phantoms have a diversified offense (9 players with double figure HR's last year) - that will help soften the loss of Wally Reid. 3rd-year man Jesus Gomez is a budding star at SS - this may be the monster breakout year for him (nothing wrong with his first 2 seasons, though). Pitching is where Rochester must improve if they're going to challenge the Big 2 of the division - rookie Rich Grace is a nice addition, but I don't see their free-agent signings making a difference Likely finish: 4th

PITTSBURGH ALLEGHENYS
Season 14 Rankings: Runs - 6th, Team ERA - 9th, Fielding % - T 2nd
Sayonara: LR Tike Porter, RP Bo Thomas
New Faces: none
Rookie Possibilities: Season 13 #1 (#5 overall) Gene Cuddyer gets the call at 1B. Season 11 IFA Hector Colome has won a bullpen job. AAA RF Joaquin Alvarez (Season 14 IFA) probably needs another minor leage season. AAA RP Louie Yang (Season 12 IFA) might see big league action this year.
OUTLOOK: I really like their front 3 starters Wanatabe, Cerda, and Cruz; they were good last year and I think they'll be better this year. Rookie 1B Gene Cuddyer has probably been called up a season early, but it'll be a big plus if he can hold his own - he should still improve a lot over the course of the season. Kaz Lim's stamina is diminishing quickly, but he should still be able to deliver good numbers. These guys have more improvement coming this year...too bad they're in a division with Cleveland and D.C. Likely finish: 3rd

NL East Season 15 Preview

Season 14 Recap: Burlington took its 3rd straight division title. The other teams were in various stages of rebuilding, although Indianapolis improved by 10 games. The NL East took home no major awards last season.

BURLINGTON LAKE MONSTERS
Season 14 Rankings: Runs - 9th, Team ERA - 9th, Fielding % - 11th
Sayonara: RP Don Lee
New Faces: 1B James Riggs, 3B Wes Phillips
Rookie Possibilities: Sammy Canseco, R.A. Everett, and Sammy Coronado join the LR/starter group. AAA SP Joaquin Polanco is ready should any of the startes falter.
OUTLOOK: Wes Phillips is getting long in the tooth, but he should still help an offense that was too reliant on COF's McDowell and Beckett. Lotta rookies joining the staff - that's not usually great news. Look for some uneven performances from the newbie pitchers. My guess is the lake Monsters will be about on par with last year...the question is whether someone can improve enough to overtake them. Likely finish: 1st

JACKSONVILLE JOKERS
Season 14 Rankings: Runs - 12th, Team ERA - 13th, Fielding % - T 4th
Sayonara: RP's Wolf Ellis and Lawrence Simpson, IF Ismael Lima, IF Brad Hart
New Faces: SP Cory Mitchell, 2B Tim Murray, LF John Li, RP Eric Langston
Rookie Possibilities: LR Richie Reuschel has made the roster. AAA IF Benji Cedeno and SP Efrain Zhang look like they could help at some point this year.
OUTLOOK: Could see a big jump in run production with Hart, Murray and Li on board. Mitchell will help the staff, but it will take some surprise big seasons from other pitchers for them to overhaul Burlington. Likely finish: 2nd

TOLEDO MUD HENS
Season 14 Rankings: Runs - 11th, Team ERA - 14th, Fielding % - 14th
Sayonara: C Lou Riley, CF Carlos Cairo, OF Harry Seguignol, OF Gary Goodwin.
New Faces: RP Russell Forest, RP Diego Martinez, 1B Sean Rakers, OF Omar Cruz
Rookie Possibilities: IF Charles Wakeland has a utility role. LF Garrett Fordham has the LF job, at least for now. Domingo Guillen has claimed a rotation spot. Relievers R.J. Abbey and Buzz Beck open in the 'pen.
OUTLOOK: With the end of the Goodwin era in Toledo, a step backward and more rebuilding ins likely. There are still some quality bats here that could bring good prospects in trade: watch for C Ted Stein, 1B Rafael Carreras and IF Robert Scarsone to be in new unis sometime this year. Likely finish: 4th

INDIANAPOLIS SLUGGERS
Season 14 Rankings: Runs - 7th, Team ERA - 15th, Fielding % - 16th
Sayonara: OF's Juan Rivera and Elroy Gant
New Faces: none
Rookie Possibilities: 3B Luis Diaz gets a shot after only a year in the minors. Rule V slugger Miguel Colon gets to see what he can do as a big league DH. Carl Reed will be a backup OF. Fonzie Tessmer starts the season in the rotation.
OUTLOOK: Didn't do as much in the offseason as Jacksonville, but I think they'll still improve. They have a respectable offense, and rookie 3B Diaz could help. While you'd have to say they're still very much in rebuilding mode, their top prospects are moving up and they shouldn't be more than a season away from making a significant move. Likely finish: 3rd

AL West Season 15 Preview

Season 14 Recap: Boise won the division by just 3 games over Portland; San Diego was just 5 back in Belle's tightest division. Season 13's champ, Salem, dropped by an astounding 45 wins with basically the same team last year. The Posse has won the division 4 of the last 6 years.

BOISE POSSE
Season 14 Rankings: Runs - 11th, Team ERA - 12th, Fielding % - 12th
Sayonara: 1B Robinson Bird, Util Rock Doster, RP's Barney Jacquez and Orlando Pujols, C Edwards Ross, 2B Mariano Pulido, Util Yamil Mondesi
New Faces: SP Humberto Urbina, RF Harry Rodrigo, C Diego Rios, RP Mickey Hermanson, 3B Jumbo Barry, CF Tony Saitou
Rookie Possibilities: Andrew Corino (Season 10 #1 - 13 overall) could win the starting SS job - they need a defensive upgrade there and he's the best bet. If that doesn't work, Season 9's 1st-rounder Hugh Rivera (AAA) could get the call. Season 11 #1 Wayne Evans looks to have won a spot in the rotation.
OUTLOOK: The Posse doesn't have a dominant hitter. Still, they had 11 players hit double-figure homers last year. Rick Clontz is their most reliable table-setter (.365 OBP); unfortunately, he's a bit of a liability in CF. LF Gil Chang is probably the best power threat...he's capable of bettering last year's 22 HR's and 57 RBI. Look for SP P.T. Navarro to put it together at age 29. He's got Cy Young-caliber stuff, but other than a few flashes of brilliance in Season 13, has yet to harness it. Milton Starr is also capable of better numbers than he's put up in his first 5 years. If the Posse gets breakout seasons from those 2 plus decent performance from rookie Evans, their pitching could be vastly improved. Their bullpen is nothing special and could really use a late-inning stopper. Likely finish: ?

PORTLAND BAR & GRILLERS
Season 14 Rankings: Runs - 13th, Team ERA - 8th, Fielding % - T 1oth
Sayonara: C William Katou, SS Fred Bailey
New Faces: RP Doug Brown, 1B Jin Lee, LF Roland Piatt, 3B Jung Cho, SP's Socks Cammack and Vance Scutaro
Rookie Possibilities: Season 12 IFA Desi Guillen (C) appears to have made the roster. A pair of 2B join him: Victor Miller, Season 13's overall #1, is up (perhaps a season early), as is Season 12's #1, Destin Sellers. CF Fernando Cordero (Season 11 2nd-rounder) also gets a shot. The staff gets a couple of fresh young faces in Butch Daniels (Season 11 supplemental pick) and Tyrone St. Clair (Season 10 supplemental) - both probably slated for long relief. AAA SP Augie Fujiwara (Season 11 IFA) could possibly help this season.
OUTLOOK: It's wholesale rookie promotion time in Portland. The 2 best ones, Miller and Sellers, are probably up a season early and are likely to struggle. The Grillers have a couple of emerging stars on offense (1B Brant Cooney and SS Frank Suzuki), one average-ish contributor (RF Miguel Camacho), and the rest of the offense is a pretty motley crew. The rotation is respectable - the addition of Vance Scutaro should help. Doug Brown should also be a big boost to the bullpen. Likely finish: ?

SAN DIEGO SURF BABIES
Season 14 Rankings: Runs - 16th, Team ERA - 7th, Fielding % - T 14th
Sayonara: none
New Faces: 3B Midre Ordonez, RP Darren Gardner, SP Carlos Colon, RP Horacio Valdes
Rookie Possibilities: Rule V 1B Daniel Unroe seems to have won the 1B job, fellow Rule V'er Peter Lyon will see action at 2B, Juan Carrasco (Season 10 IFA) and Jimmie Ibanez (Season 12 IFA) will share time at short, and Pascual Castro (Season 11 2nd-rounder) and Livan Rivera (Season 10 IFA) will both see time in right. AAA RF Stan Burnett likely needs another year.
OUTLOOK: The Surf Babies need more punch on offense. DH Lewis Paquette lead the team with 15 homers last year, and there are no candidates to better that mark by much. LF Diego Coronado is capable of decent numbers, and Midre Ordonez ould be a welcome addition, but no other spots in the lineup inspire much confidence. Pitching's another story. Fernando Nieto, Mike Bass and Ernest LaRocca lead a capable rotation; new closer Darren Gardner joins Sal Speier at the top of an unglamorous but effective bullpen. Likely finish: ?

SALEM GOONIES
Season 14 Rankings: Runs - 9th, Team ERA - 16th, Fielding % - 16th
Sayonara: SS Miguel Ordaz, RP Wolf Drew, RP Darwin Jones, RP Mariano Guerrero, SP Damian Wang, 1B Willie Magadan
New Faces: IF Ismael Lima, LR Jon Spence, RF York Wilson, SP Charles Matsumoto, C Lewis Bell
Rookie Possibilities: Mark Liverman (Season 11 supplemental pick) will get lots of AB's against righties, probably at 1B. AAA RF Ray Krause (Season 11's #1) is nearly ready. We're betting Season 12 #1 (6th overall), SP Ernest Terrell, is an early callup.
OUTLOOK: This team is going to score more runs, despite the move to a neutral ballpark. There's no way C Brad Anderson is going to OPS .647 again, and Lewis Bell wil help against lefties. Leonardo Hardy and Carlos Escuela are 2 of the best young offensive infielders around. Jose Vargas and Alex Paniagua are still dangerous. The question is whether the staff can rebound from last year's disaster. The rotation, starting with Matsumoto, should be better. The other 4 are almost certain to improve on their ERA's from last year (in the 5's, 6's and 7's). The 'pen's nothing special but I would expect most of them to better last year's numbers (especially Johnny Wood and his 9.42 from a year ago). Likely finish: ?