The Push/Pull rating is probably the least most looked at rating of any position player. What does it mean exactly? The information says that a 0 is a dead pull hitter, so 100 would mean the exact opposite or dead opposite field. Basically, it is a hitters tendency and determines where the ball goes when contact is made about 80% of the time.
Chart for right handed hitter vs right handed pitcher
0-49 is hit to left side
50 is hit up the middle
51-100 is hit to right side
Chart for right handed hitter vs left handed pitcher
0-49 is hit to right side
50 is hit up the middle
51-100 is hit to left side
Note: This chart is in a simplistic form and can be broken down even further to determine which fielder will be involved in most cases.
For switch hitters and left handed hitters all you need to do is think opposite or watch the box scores as to where they hit the ball against different pitchers to get the hang of where it is going to go.
Whether the ball is on the ground or is in the air depends on several factors but mainly depends on the hitters power and the pitchers FB/GB ratings.
If you have a hitter that is about a 15 or 85, he will be hitting to/over the infield gaps. About 30 or 70 power alley hitters but at the SS/2B in the infield. 50 of course would be right up the middle.
Does this really matter all that much? Actually I am not sure myself. It might if you have a weak power hitting team and run aggressive on hit and run.
Here is question that everyone can debate: Why is the range and glove of a 3B need to be so great while that of a 1B is so little?
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Sunday, March 22, 2009
A Look At the Draft Class for Season 11
1. D'Angelo Cerda, P, Wichita Wingmen - Made headlines as the Number 1 pick in the season 11 draft and holding out for the biggest bonus so far at $6M. Sporting projected great control and splits with some pretty good pitches. Should be a very good pitcher though the Cy Young award may be a bit elusive for him.
2. Omar Carrasco, P, Washington D.C. Revenge - Agent collusion that's what I call it, as Omar heard of the D'Angelo signing and immediately signed a few hours later for 700K less. Omar has good control with fantastic splits with a very good out pitch and 4 quality pitches. It will be fun to see these two go at each other. Which one will be better remains to be seen.
3. Graham Black, CF, El Paso Sand Walkers - The Sand Walkers are not sure he could be a ML CF with his weak glove but are willing to give him a chance otherwise it will be off to COF. Has average and long ball capabilities in the hitting department and a base stealing threat.
4. Kennie Frascatore, P, Tacoma TIE Fighters - Starting pitcher with great control and splits. Pitches are not an outstanding but should be satisfactory. Could be a high gopher ball pitcher without a very good PC catcher but should give 5 or 6 quality start innings.
5. Omar Chavez, P, Austin City Limits - Austin decided on a 3 pitch pitcher that could go 9 innings every time he pitches at the ML level. Has great control, splits and pitches but could be slow to develop late to his full potential.
6. J.J. Charles, P, San Diego Surf Babies - Unsigned
7. Jim Olson, SS, Sioux Falls Stoned Presidents - Real power hitting ML SS are hard to come by and he nearly has it all. However he is a bit of a risk due to his health which could shorten or end his career early.
8. Ching-Lung Fujiwara, P, Scranton Schrutes - Unsigned
9. Ray Krause, RF, San Francisco Super Sonics - His glove could cause him trouble in the OF. At the plate he could hit 50HR but could have a .260 average and be walked a lot. Could be very slow to develop and reach potential.
10. Rich Grace, P, Trenton Tunnel Rats - A 3 pitch pitcher that has great control and good splits for a lefty with 2 great pitches. His third pitch could cause some trouble.
11. Mike Franco, P, Kansas City Cattle Herders - A pitcher that can give 6 solid innings each time out. Has good control and has unhittable splits with a great out pitch. His other pitches aren't exactly show stoppers but will keep batters guessing. Could be slow to attain the projections and his health could cause big time problems.
12. Tom Fischer, 2B, Charlotte Gooners - Is by no means a 2B but will find a home somewhere in the outfield on a ML roster. Doesn't have exceptional power but will deliver at the plate with power numbers.
13. Dion Hull, P, Richmond Poor Men - Great control, good splits while the pitches leaves a little to be desired. Should still become a good ML pitcher.
14. Cristobal Sivilla, P, Toledo Mud Hens - Great control, weak splits and decent pitches. Could be slow to attain the projections and could be marginal at the ML level as a starter.
15. Matty Manzanillo, 2B, Cincinnati Waste Managers - A little weak in the range to play 2B maybe but there will be a spot on a ML roster. His hitting though not powerful will be enough to maintain an adequate average.
16. Jon Cosby, P, San Jose Bad News Bees II - With so many pitchers taken already, it seems a little odd for one of this quality to be picked at this late. Jon projects to a staff ace of the future, however it is possible he dropped so low due to his low patience that could cause problems in development.
17. Wayne Evans, P, Boise Posse - Another future staff ace with good control, splits and pitches. Can count on this kid at the ML as a probable #2 or #3 starter in the near term.
18. Martin Munro, 1B, Oakland Surenos - A power house 1B whose defense may be a touch weak but adequate. Speaking of power, 50+ home runs with an above .300 average is very highly possible or to me a sure thing.
19. Thomas Simpkins, CF, New York Moguls - How this kid will develop is a mystery to me with the lack of patience. He does project to be a good fielding CF with high power numbers with the tendency to strike out.
20. Groucho Priest, LF, Portland Opossums - Does project to be a decent LF or outstanding 1B. Has the plate presence to put up very good power numbers.
21. Angel Norris, 3B, Syracuse Orange Crush - Adequate defense for the ML. Hitting wise could find him walking a lot and a doubles and singles hitter with a few home runs thrown in. Health and makeup is questionable and could cause a short career.
22. Malcolm Smith, CF, Philadelphia Phillies - Unsigned
23. Pascual Pena, C, Columbus Criminals - Normally a catcher taken in the first round will have the hitting prowess and defensive skills to be the best in the league. However, very seldom do both happen at the same time. The hitting is definitely there but the defensive skills are severely lacking. Will probably play DH and backup catcher on most clubs.
24. Mac Hooper, P, Cincinnati Waste Managers - Most clubs taking pitchers after the 16th pick are normally looking for pen help. Mac fills the bill as his control is very good but splits are lacking for those of a true starter with decent enough pitches. Long relief is a good possibility at the ML level.
25. Daryl Damon, 2B, Burlington Lake Monsters - While 2B is probably out of the question, COF is a possibility. While not a chick magnet in the power department, he will hit for a good average.
26. Joe White, P, Charleston Apologists - Finding a quality starting pitcher this late in the first round is tough, but Charleston found one. May not be a dominate lefty starter but will give 5 or 6 solid innings each time. Great control, good splits and pitches.
27. Lance Belitz, SS, Las Vegas 69ers - Playing SS at the ML level is not out of the question, but if he doesn't, there are other opportunities. Hitting should be decent with some power.
28. Derrek Whitney, P, Little Rock Pebbles - Another starting lefty pitcher that fell through the cracks to the late 1st round. With adequate control, decent splits and pitches should easily make a ML roster. Many may have shied away due to his somewhat low health which could be bothersome early in his career.
29. Danny Terry, SS, Portland Opossums - Unsigned
30. Greg Mercedes, P, Nashville Kool Kats - A lefty setup pitcher, I wouldn't say a closer. Has great control and good splits. Does have a good out pitch but not exactly enamored with the other two for a strike out pitcher.
31. Dennis Hewson, LF, Jackson Holes - Projects to be a good LF. Will have good power numbers but will be streaky with the long ball.
32. Richie Reuschel, P, Cleveland Katanas - Good control, high medium splits, pitches are varied. Doubtful that he will be a starter at the ML level although long relief is plausible.
2. Omar Carrasco, P, Washington D.C. Revenge - Agent collusion that's what I call it, as Omar heard of the D'Angelo signing and immediately signed a few hours later for 700K less. Omar has good control with fantastic splits with a very good out pitch and 4 quality pitches. It will be fun to see these two go at each other. Which one will be better remains to be seen.
3. Graham Black, CF, El Paso Sand Walkers - The Sand Walkers are not sure he could be a ML CF with his weak glove but are willing to give him a chance otherwise it will be off to COF. Has average and long ball capabilities in the hitting department and a base stealing threat.
4. Kennie Frascatore, P, Tacoma TIE Fighters - Starting pitcher with great control and splits. Pitches are not an outstanding but should be satisfactory. Could be a high gopher ball pitcher without a very good PC catcher but should give 5 or 6 quality start innings.
5. Omar Chavez, P, Austin City Limits - Austin decided on a 3 pitch pitcher that could go 9 innings every time he pitches at the ML level. Has great control, splits and pitches but could be slow to develop late to his full potential.
6. J.J. Charles, P, San Diego Surf Babies - Unsigned
7. Jim Olson, SS, Sioux Falls Stoned Presidents - Real power hitting ML SS are hard to come by and he nearly has it all. However he is a bit of a risk due to his health which could shorten or end his career early.
8. Ching-Lung Fujiwara, P, Scranton Schrutes - Unsigned
9. Ray Krause, RF, San Francisco Super Sonics - His glove could cause him trouble in the OF. At the plate he could hit 50HR but could have a .260 average and be walked a lot. Could be very slow to develop and reach potential.
10. Rich Grace, P, Trenton Tunnel Rats - A 3 pitch pitcher that has great control and good splits for a lefty with 2 great pitches. His third pitch could cause some trouble.
11. Mike Franco, P, Kansas City Cattle Herders - A pitcher that can give 6 solid innings each time out. Has good control and has unhittable splits with a great out pitch. His other pitches aren't exactly show stoppers but will keep batters guessing. Could be slow to attain the projections and his health could cause big time problems.
12. Tom Fischer, 2B, Charlotte Gooners - Is by no means a 2B but will find a home somewhere in the outfield on a ML roster. Doesn't have exceptional power but will deliver at the plate with power numbers.
13. Dion Hull, P, Richmond Poor Men - Great control, good splits while the pitches leaves a little to be desired. Should still become a good ML pitcher.
14. Cristobal Sivilla, P, Toledo Mud Hens - Great control, weak splits and decent pitches. Could be slow to attain the projections and could be marginal at the ML level as a starter.
15. Matty Manzanillo, 2B, Cincinnati Waste Managers - A little weak in the range to play 2B maybe but there will be a spot on a ML roster. His hitting though not powerful will be enough to maintain an adequate average.
16. Jon Cosby, P, San Jose Bad News Bees II - With so many pitchers taken already, it seems a little odd for one of this quality to be picked at this late. Jon projects to a staff ace of the future, however it is possible he dropped so low due to his low patience that could cause problems in development.
17. Wayne Evans, P, Boise Posse - Another future staff ace with good control, splits and pitches. Can count on this kid at the ML as a probable #2 or #3 starter in the near term.
18. Martin Munro, 1B, Oakland Surenos - A power house 1B whose defense may be a touch weak but adequate. Speaking of power, 50+ home runs with an above .300 average is very highly possible or to me a sure thing.
19. Thomas Simpkins, CF, New York Moguls - How this kid will develop is a mystery to me with the lack of patience. He does project to be a good fielding CF with high power numbers with the tendency to strike out.
20. Groucho Priest, LF, Portland Opossums - Does project to be a decent LF or outstanding 1B. Has the plate presence to put up very good power numbers.
21. Angel Norris, 3B, Syracuse Orange Crush - Adequate defense for the ML. Hitting wise could find him walking a lot and a doubles and singles hitter with a few home runs thrown in. Health and makeup is questionable and could cause a short career.
22. Malcolm Smith, CF, Philadelphia Phillies - Unsigned
23. Pascual Pena, C, Columbus Criminals - Normally a catcher taken in the first round will have the hitting prowess and defensive skills to be the best in the league. However, very seldom do both happen at the same time. The hitting is definitely there but the defensive skills are severely lacking. Will probably play DH and backup catcher on most clubs.
24. Mac Hooper, P, Cincinnati Waste Managers - Most clubs taking pitchers after the 16th pick are normally looking for pen help. Mac fills the bill as his control is very good but splits are lacking for those of a true starter with decent enough pitches. Long relief is a good possibility at the ML level.
25. Daryl Damon, 2B, Burlington Lake Monsters - While 2B is probably out of the question, COF is a possibility. While not a chick magnet in the power department, he will hit for a good average.
26. Joe White, P, Charleston Apologists - Finding a quality starting pitcher this late in the first round is tough, but Charleston found one. May not be a dominate lefty starter but will give 5 or 6 solid innings each time. Great control, good splits and pitches.
27. Lance Belitz, SS, Las Vegas 69ers - Playing SS at the ML level is not out of the question, but if he doesn't, there are other opportunities. Hitting should be decent with some power.
28. Derrek Whitney, P, Little Rock Pebbles - Another starting lefty pitcher that fell through the cracks to the late 1st round. With adequate control, decent splits and pitches should easily make a ML roster. Many may have shied away due to his somewhat low health which could be bothersome early in his career.
29. Danny Terry, SS, Portland Opossums - Unsigned
30. Greg Mercedes, P, Nashville Kool Kats - A lefty setup pitcher, I wouldn't say a closer. Has great control and good splits. Does have a good out pitch but not exactly enamored with the other two for a strike out pitcher.
31. Dennis Hewson, LF, Jackson Holes - Projects to be a good LF. Will have good power numbers but will be streaky with the long ball.
32. Richie Reuschel, P, Cleveland Katanas - Good control, high medium splits, pitches are varied. Doubtful that he will be a starter at the ML level although long relief is plausible.
Friday, March 20, 2009
Pitchers and Pitches
I have been following a thread in the Forum about a pitchers pitches and if they are weighted. I am not the only one here following this little tidbit of information either, though no one has a real definitive answer either. WIS is not about to tell you how the formula works or what factors impact pitching resolution. Matter of fact they elude answering the questions about pitching the best they can. I am not sure about all of them myself but I have reasoned out a few about pitchers by the results in the box scores. This is where everyone needs to concentrate in my opinion. As in the real world the answer to the entire situation is "effectiveness" and that is the word WIS eludes to more than being definitive. With that being the answer any pitcher can be effective on any given day, that does not mean he will be effective every time they pitch. Cy Young pitchers have bad days also, so there must be some factor or combination of factors that will give them a bad game every now and then. With that being said, what one needs to concentrate on, more or less, is finding the pitchers that are effective the best.
One of the things I requested every one to do was read the help section about player settings for pitchers and players at the beginning of the season. Some of those elusive factors are mentioned there that no one seems to pay much attention.
One thing of importance that everyone seems to put less importance on is the players physical abilities. I have noticed that these ratings are affecting a players performance on the field more and more over the course of a season.
Lets take a little more indepth study of a pitcher and can be applied to any player if one stops and thinks about it.
Stamina - Does a high stamina make a pitcher more effective? Not really as it actually determines what role a pitcher plays more than anything else used in conjunction with his physical abilities of course.
Control - Does a high control make a pitcher more effective? Of course, it would be really silly to think otherwise. However low control pitchers can be just as effective. Patience, Temper and Makeup come into play here. I wouldn't want a high temper guy with low control, tend to lead to hit batters, fights and ejections especially if he hits a high temper batter.
Splits - It was noted that a real effective pitcher will have a vsR of 70 or better in this category. Most left handed pitchers don't have this, so what makes them tick that makes them effective against right handed batters? It has to be Patience, Temper and Makeup and their pitches. The same can be said of right handed pitchers with less than the vsR 70 also. Can low split pitchers be effective? I think so if their control is very high, have good pitches along with good Patience, Temper and Makeup and a good PC catcher will help.
Velocity - This one sometimes mystifies me. Most like the high velocity pitchers because they tend to strike more batters out which is true. In the same realm though, they also have a tendency to give up more home runs. It is my feeling that a high velocity pitcher better have real good control, splits and pitches to be effective. Once again Patience, Temper and Makeup come into play.
GB/FB - I am not real keen on a fly ball pitcher in a heavy plus park but they seem to fare just as well as a ground ball pitcher. My feeling here is that defense helps more than anything else along with the Pitches, Patience, Temper and Makeup.
Pitches - This is where things seem to get a little muddied and are a big factor as to whether a pitcher is effective or not.
Pitch #1 - The first pitch is the out pitch so we have found out, so if it is not in the 80's or 90's he is not going to be as effective.
Pitch #2 - If pitch #1 is his out pitch, then the second pitch becomes important and probably needs to be in the mid 60's and up at least.
Pitch #3 - Not all pitchers have a third pitch and there are lots of 3 pitch only pitchers and some are starters. For 3 pitch only I would say it needs to be in the 50's at least and the higher the better for any other.
Pitch #4 - Normally this pitch is in the 40's and I would say that it could be a bait pitch more than anything else. However there are times when this pitch is higher than pitch #3, this should be watched very carefully. If pitch #3 is not in the 50's, say 30's or 40', and pitch #4 is in the 60's or higher this tends to make the pitcher give up many more home runs.
Pitch #5 - This pitch is normally what one would call a throw away pitch if available. It has been said that if this pitch is really low that a good coach will get him to drop it or it would never be thrown. My question is how low is low and that answer has never been given, but I would assume that low would be less than 20. I have seen this pitch much higher than pitch #3 and pitch #4 lately, I do not know if this has any effect on the home run business in this manner.
The effect of a catchers PC is involved also. This is another factor that comes into play somewhere along the line. 50 is the standard for that, below 50 supposedly gets negatives and above 50 gets positives. What was said is that it gives a bonus to the pitches but it only effects OAV and SLG%. If that is the case then it becomes a defensive measure as is intended. That means if the resolution was that the ball was put in play, there is more of a likelyhood that it becomes an out or a home run may become a double or single.
Another factor that some don't realize is the batter himself, his Patience, Temper and Makeup also play a big factor in the resolution of an AB along with his hitting abilities. Does he have the patience to wait on that bad pitch #3? Does he have the makeup to know that pitch #3 is coming instead of pitch #4. Or did he swing and miss on a ball out of the zone because he guessed wrong?
Lets not forget about ball park factors also. Does weather get thrown in every once in awhile? Of course I didn't mention fatigue either, I have noticed that some pen pitchers can't throw two days in a row even if they are at 100% either.
One of the things I requested every one to do was read the help section about player settings for pitchers and players at the beginning of the season. Some of those elusive factors are mentioned there that no one seems to pay much attention.
One thing of importance that everyone seems to put less importance on is the players physical abilities. I have noticed that these ratings are affecting a players performance on the field more and more over the course of a season.
Lets take a little more indepth study of a pitcher and can be applied to any player if one stops and thinks about it.
Stamina - Does a high stamina make a pitcher more effective? Not really as it actually determines what role a pitcher plays more than anything else used in conjunction with his physical abilities of course.
Control - Does a high control make a pitcher more effective? Of course, it would be really silly to think otherwise. However low control pitchers can be just as effective. Patience, Temper and Makeup come into play here. I wouldn't want a high temper guy with low control, tend to lead to hit batters, fights and ejections especially if he hits a high temper batter.
Splits - It was noted that a real effective pitcher will have a vsR of 70 or better in this category. Most left handed pitchers don't have this, so what makes them tick that makes them effective against right handed batters? It has to be Patience, Temper and Makeup and their pitches. The same can be said of right handed pitchers with less than the vsR 70 also. Can low split pitchers be effective? I think so if their control is very high, have good pitches along with good Patience, Temper and Makeup and a good PC catcher will help.
Velocity - This one sometimes mystifies me. Most like the high velocity pitchers because they tend to strike more batters out which is true. In the same realm though, they also have a tendency to give up more home runs. It is my feeling that a high velocity pitcher better have real good control, splits and pitches to be effective. Once again Patience, Temper and Makeup come into play.
GB/FB - I am not real keen on a fly ball pitcher in a heavy plus park but they seem to fare just as well as a ground ball pitcher. My feeling here is that defense helps more than anything else along with the Pitches, Patience, Temper and Makeup.
Pitches - This is where things seem to get a little muddied and are a big factor as to whether a pitcher is effective or not.
Pitch #1 - The first pitch is the out pitch so we have found out, so if it is not in the 80's or 90's he is not going to be as effective.
Pitch #2 - If pitch #1 is his out pitch, then the second pitch becomes important and probably needs to be in the mid 60's and up at least.
Pitch #3 - Not all pitchers have a third pitch and there are lots of 3 pitch only pitchers and some are starters. For 3 pitch only I would say it needs to be in the 50's at least and the higher the better for any other.
Pitch #4 - Normally this pitch is in the 40's and I would say that it could be a bait pitch more than anything else. However there are times when this pitch is higher than pitch #3, this should be watched very carefully. If pitch #3 is not in the 50's, say 30's or 40', and pitch #4 is in the 60's or higher this tends to make the pitcher give up many more home runs.
Pitch #5 - This pitch is normally what one would call a throw away pitch if available. It has been said that if this pitch is really low that a good coach will get him to drop it or it would never be thrown. My question is how low is low and that answer has never been given, but I would assume that low would be less than 20. I have seen this pitch much higher than pitch #3 and pitch #4 lately, I do not know if this has any effect on the home run business in this manner.
The effect of a catchers PC is involved also. This is another factor that comes into play somewhere along the line. 50 is the standard for that, below 50 supposedly gets negatives and above 50 gets positives. What was said is that it gives a bonus to the pitches but it only effects OAV and SLG%. If that is the case then it becomes a defensive measure as is intended. That means if the resolution was that the ball was put in play, there is more of a likelyhood that it becomes an out or a home run may become a double or single.
Another factor that some don't realize is the batter himself, his Patience, Temper and Makeup also play a big factor in the resolution of an AB along with his hitting abilities. Does he have the patience to wait on that bad pitch #3? Does he have the makeup to know that pitch #3 is coming instead of pitch #4. Or did he swing and miss on a ball out of the zone because he guessed wrong?
Lets not forget about ball park factors also. Does weather get thrown in every once in awhile? Of course I didn't mention fatigue either, I have noticed that some pen pitchers can't throw two days in a row even if they are at 100% either.
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
How To Find Draft Bargains
One of the great things about HBD is there are LOTS of ways to build a good team - free agency, the international market, trades and the draft. In many ways the draft is the most difficult way to go - the benefits are 3-5 seasons away and depend on successful development and injury avoidance (for one). But despite the popular sentiment that draft scouting needs to be "fuzzier," there are still bargains to be had. There's a huge difference between landing 1 or 2 major-leaguers in the draft (like I did here last year picking 7th) and landing 5 (like I did in another world that drafted this morning).
I did quite a bit more prep for that draft than I've done before, and some of the guys I had rated very high lasted a lot longer than they should've (imho). Here's what they looked like:
1) Pitchers with LOW control (50's) but very good splits, groundball and pitches. If you do a player search and look for guys like this you find that they generally perform quite well. I think what happens is a lot of owners do their first sort of pitchers by their control rating, then "eyeball it" one by one until they've manually ranked 100 or so players (or they just automatically move down those 50's control guys). In my other draft I had targeted a guy who projected to 54 control, 92/91 splits, 84 groundball, and 97/72/54/51 pitches for my 2nd-rounder. I actually had him as the 6th best player. He went #49. At 2 (64 overall), I ended up getting a high-DUR RP rated 59 control, 88/86 splits, 82 groundball, and 82/72/42 pitches.
2) Good-D 2B'men. Good-defense SS's and CF's don't fall far, and you see lots of good-hitting 2B with Range/Glove of 73/70 getting playing time. Conventional wisdom seems to be that you can give up a bat at SS and either C or CF, but 2B get a lot more chances than CF's - it's really a more important position defensively. We had quite a few of these in Double Mendoza: a couple went pretty high (26 and 30 overall), but one with Range/Glove of 93/92 and a vR split of 90 fell to #106 overall (probably because 0 power but who cares at that point?).
3) RH Pitchers with low vR (as opposed to LH Pitchers with a low vR). All other things being equal, a righty with a 60 vR is oing to be more effective than a lefty with a 60 vR. Seems pretty obvious, right? Looking at the DM draft, it doesn't look like most owners took that into acount.
4) Low pitch-count RP's (with good ratings). When your choices are a LF with 40's in all hitting categories; a lefty RP with Sta 25, Dur 32 and Con/vL/vR of 89/88/57, and a starter with Con/vL/vR of 80/32/32, who to take? The RP is the only major league player - tailor made to come in and get 1 lefty hitter. A number of these guys feel out of site in DM...I didn't apply my own rule well enough and missed on all.
Happy bargain-hunting!
I did quite a bit more prep for that draft than I've done before, and some of the guys I had rated very high lasted a lot longer than they should've (imho). Here's what they looked like:
1) Pitchers with LOW control (50's) but very good splits, groundball and pitches. If you do a player search and look for guys like this you find that they generally perform quite well. I think what happens is a lot of owners do their first sort of pitchers by their control rating, then "eyeball it" one by one until they've manually ranked 100 or so players (or they just automatically move down those 50's control guys). In my other draft I had targeted a guy who projected to 54 control, 92/91 splits, 84 groundball, and 97/72/54/51 pitches for my 2nd-rounder. I actually had him as the 6th best player. He went #49. At 2 (64 overall), I ended up getting a high-DUR RP rated 59 control, 88/86 splits, 82 groundball, and 82/72/42 pitches.
2) Good-D 2B'men. Good-defense SS's and CF's don't fall far, and you see lots of good-hitting 2B with Range/Glove of 73/70 getting playing time. Conventional wisdom seems to be that you can give up a bat at SS and either C or CF, but 2B get a lot more chances than CF's - it's really a more important position defensively. We had quite a few of these in Double Mendoza: a couple went pretty high (26 and 30 overall), but one with Range/Glove of 93/92 and a vR split of 90 fell to #106 overall (probably because 0 power but who cares at that point?).
3) RH Pitchers with low vR (as opposed to LH Pitchers with a low vR). All other things being equal, a righty with a 60 vR is oing to be more effective than a lefty with a 60 vR. Seems pretty obvious, right? Looking at the DM draft, it doesn't look like most owners took that into acount.
4) Low pitch-count RP's (with good ratings). When your choices are a LF with 40's in all hitting categories; a lefty RP with Sta 25, Dur 32 and Con/vL/vR of 89/88/57, and a starter with Con/vL/vR of 80/32/32, who to take? The RP is the only major league player - tailor made to come in and get 1 lefty hitter. A number of these guys feel out of site in DM...I didn't apply my own rule well enough and missed on all.
Happy bargain-hunting!
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Analysis of the Chicago/El Paso trade
Sandberg's railing on the Chicago/El Paso trade and bdrose has voted to veto (presumably seeing it as imbalanced in favor of El Paso...not sure, he hasn't said).
I love a good trade brouhaha.
While I prefer El Paso's side of the deal, too, I don't think it's a slam dunk by any means. Here's my take:
Chicago gets Ryan Rivers, a 30 year-old SP/LR with a pretty hefty contract, and $5 million, which pays Rivers for the rest of this year and about 45% of next year. Sandberg says Rivers' ratings have been dropping for 2 years, but that's not quite accurate; they dropped in Season 9 due to 2 injuries, but in Season 10 (at age 29), he actually gained a point each in his vL and all 3 pitches. Given his good makeup, there's a good chance he'll maintain his current ratings for the rest of his contract (age 32). At 91 health, he's not a great injury risk. His Season 10 (147 IP. 3.42 ERA) was probably the most valuable year any of these guys has had (not necessarily the best, which likely was Johnson's 88 innings of 3.06 for San Jose in Season 9), and there's nothing about the guy that suggests he couldn't do those numbers again.
So I don't think he's the total bum Sandberg does. Nothing great, but not a total bum. Sure, his contract is too much, but if you take into acount the $5mm El Paso is throwing in, his cost is down to $2.38 million a year for the rest of his contract.
El Paso gets Terry Johnson, a decent reliever with the aforementioned Season 9 plus another good year (although only 22 innings) under his belt (the knock on Johnson, though is that 58 vR - despite his other ratings, that 58 makes Season 10 - 5.46 ERA - as likely as Season 9); Lee Harris, a 39 year-old RP who has seen (much) better days (nice career but THIS is the guy in the deal who's ratings are plummeting. To say he has a career 4.09 ERA is accurate but misleading...it's been 2 years since he's been anywhere near his career ERA. And he's a threat to blow an elbow every time he thinks about warming up); and Joe Keats, a fair 1B who suffers from the fact that everybody has a better one...Sandberg calls him a "good bat off the bench," which I can go along with, but that's another way of saying "Can't crack the lineup".
There you go...the other side of the Chicago/El Paso trade. If I had to say one team "won" the trade, I'd go with El Paso. But in terms of it dramatically tilting the league's competitive balance or damaging a franchise's future (what I personally have to see to cast a veto vote), I don't think any of the players involved carry that kid of weight.
I love a good trade brouhaha.
While I prefer El Paso's side of the deal, too, I don't think it's a slam dunk by any means. Here's my take:
Chicago gets Ryan Rivers, a 30 year-old SP/LR with a pretty hefty contract, and $5 million, which pays Rivers for the rest of this year and about 45% of next year. Sandberg says Rivers' ratings have been dropping for 2 years, but that's not quite accurate; they dropped in Season 9 due to 2 injuries, but in Season 10 (at age 29), he actually gained a point each in his vL and all 3 pitches. Given his good makeup, there's a good chance he'll maintain his current ratings for the rest of his contract (age 32). At 91 health, he's not a great injury risk. His Season 10 (147 IP. 3.42 ERA) was probably the most valuable year any of these guys has had (not necessarily the best, which likely was Johnson's 88 innings of 3.06 for San Jose in Season 9), and there's nothing about the guy that suggests he couldn't do those numbers again.
So I don't think he's the total bum Sandberg does. Nothing great, but not a total bum. Sure, his contract is too much, but if you take into acount the $5mm El Paso is throwing in, his cost is down to $2.38 million a year for the rest of his contract.
El Paso gets Terry Johnson, a decent reliever with the aforementioned Season 9 plus another good year (although only 22 innings) under his belt (the knock on Johnson, though is that 58 vR - despite his other ratings, that 58 makes Season 10 - 5.46 ERA - as likely as Season 9); Lee Harris, a 39 year-old RP who has seen (much) better days (nice career but THIS is the guy in the deal who's ratings are plummeting. To say he has a career 4.09 ERA is accurate but misleading...it's been 2 years since he's been anywhere near his career ERA. And he's a threat to blow an elbow every time he thinks about warming up); and Joe Keats, a fair 1B who suffers from the fact that everybody has a better one...Sandberg calls him a "good bat off the bench," which I can go along with, but that's another way of saying "Can't crack the lineup".
There you go...the other side of the Chicago/El Paso trade. If I had to say one team "won" the trade, I'd go with El Paso. But in terms of it dramatically tilting the league's competitive balance or damaging a franchise's future (what I personally have to see to cast a veto vote), I don't think any of the players involved carry that kid of weight.
Monday, March 9, 2009
Time For Who Is Hot and Not List
Another 10 or so games has gone by and things start to settle down. Who is making the grade?
AL HoT:
Syracuse Orange Crush: 8-2 over last 10 and has a 3 game lead in the North.
Jackson Holes: 8-2 over the last 10 and a 3 game lead in the South.
AL NoT:
Boise Posse: 1-9 over the last 10 and has lost the last 5 in a row at home even.
Portland Opossums: 2-8 over the last 10 and a 7 game losing streak. They have an excuse called the schedule.
San Diego Surf Babies: 3-7 over the last 10 but maybe has started a winning streak.
NL HoT:
Charleston Apologists: 9-1 over the last 10 and lighting up the scoreboard.
Oakland Surenos: 7-3 over the last 10 and on a 3 game win streak. Good enough to take over the top spot in the South.
Kansas City Cattle Herders: 7-3 over the last 10 and on a 5 game win streak has allowed them get close to the top spot in the East.
Burlington Lake Monsters: 7-3 over the last 10 but on a 3 game slide.
NL NoT:
Madison BUTCHERS: 1-9 over the last 10 and on a 5 game losing streak. They hit the hot teams at the wrong time.
San Jose Bad News Bees II: 2-8 over the last 10. Playing league leaders didn't help.
Tacoma TIE Fighters: 3-7 over the last 10. Had a bad experience in the Northland and the schedule gets worse.
Las Vegas 69ers: 3-7 over the last 10. Had a fallout in the Southland add in some mad wet Hens and you have a disaster.
AL HoT:
Syracuse Orange Crush: 8-2 over last 10 and has a 3 game lead in the North.
Jackson Holes: 8-2 over the last 10 and a 3 game lead in the South.
AL NoT:
Boise Posse: 1-9 over the last 10 and has lost the last 5 in a row at home even.
Portland Opossums: 2-8 over the last 10 and a 7 game losing streak. They have an excuse called the schedule.
San Diego Surf Babies: 3-7 over the last 10 but maybe has started a winning streak.
NL HoT:
Charleston Apologists: 9-1 over the last 10 and lighting up the scoreboard.
Oakland Surenos: 7-3 over the last 10 and on a 3 game win streak. Good enough to take over the top spot in the South.
Kansas City Cattle Herders: 7-3 over the last 10 and on a 5 game win streak has allowed them get close to the top spot in the East.
Burlington Lake Monsters: 7-3 over the last 10 but on a 3 game slide.
NL NoT:
Madison BUTCHERS: 1-9 over the last 10 and on a 5 game losing streak. They hit the hot teams at the wrong time.
San Jose Bad News Bees II: 2-8 over the last 10. Playing league leaders didn't help.
Tacoma TIE Fighters: 3-7 over the last 10. Had a bad experience in the Northland and the schedule gets worse.
Las Vegas 69ers: 3-7 over the last 10. Had a fallout in the Southland add in some mad wet Hens and you have a disaster.
Thursday, March 5, 2009
A GM's Thoughts and Dairy #1
Ever wonder what goes through the mind of a GM and the decisions one makes? Just like todays economy one must be justifiably prudent in their actions most of the time. Maybe a class on Econ 101 would be helpful. How many saw that the economy was gonna go south other than me? Only those that grew up in the 60's and 70's I would imagine and they probably understand this parallel. Boom followed by recession, history repeats itself once again. Everyone can disagree with me on this but there was two key things that happened then, that happened now. Once again the powers that be try to solve the effect instead of the cause and then don't pay attention to a more serious problem brewing elsewhere.
Okay what does that Econ 101 history lesson have to do with this game? I took the Sand Walkers team over last year (Season 10) as I wanted a team in the South division just so I could be in El Paso. Sounds like a dumb reason but it is true. The team had the fourth pick in the draft that is an effect. The cause is simple, the ML team was pathetic, some hitting and very little in the pitching department but low salary. The minors had very little in the cupboards also being another cause. Being a new owner I was more crippled with spending caps, another cause, as it is hard to discern some talent between good and borderline. So which cause and effect to fix as you can't fix three at the same time and keep another problem from brewing. It really takes two seasons to fix the cap problem and get them where you want, so nothing to fix there as it was set the best it could be, maxed out upwards.
Since the cupboard was bare, it was decided that it would be more prudent to start restocking the minors first. I could have tried to fix the ML team with some Free Agents, but that would not have been prudent because I needed too many. Too many is more than three by the way. So it was decided to go after at least two blue chip IFA prospects and hope for a good draft. That would be a start at restocking the minors with 5 to 8 players. Watching the Waiver Wire and maybe picking up another player or two also. Rule 5 is a way of picking up a good player or two for the future also. So, how did I do?
Rule 5
Benny Harnisch. Young Long reliever with emergency start capabilities with some room to grow.
IFA
Vin Acosta - Okay not a blue chip player but very cheap and if his defensive abilities are realized could make a good key position bench player.
Louie Duran - Was drafted as a 2B but best he could be is a RF, has some hitting upside. Depending on how he develops could be in the ML.
Midre Jose - Will progress through the ranks to AAA at least this year and find a Starting Rotation job next season. Well worth the money spent.
Draft
Alex Russell - 1st round pick that will probably need at least 3 seasons in the minors before being a starter at the ML level.
Billy Kinney - 3rd round pick that will need more time depending, but should be good as a 4th or 5th starter.
Analysis: Though not what I had hoped for in picking up 5 to 8 players but I did manage to pick up four good pitchers for the future. Coupled with the previous owners first round pitcher will give me a viable rotation in a season or two that could feature three Cy Young candidates. But I didn't come up with anything in the hitting department.
The Season 10 ML team was bad as expected using what was serviceable from the previous season and what was available in the minors. I really thought they would have been a little better than their record indicated. Looking back at the season, maybe I could have won more games if I had gotten a Free Agent or two as our 1-run record was 21-24. Would have it been wise to spend $10M to $15M on a couple players to win 10 to 15 games at most? The answer is probably not as it would have taken $20M or more to shore the problems and making trades was out of the question.
Season 11 budget was the easiest to set up, since I did get enough players to restock the minors as hoped. Though I do have the 3rd overall pick and I get the 40th as a supplemental also which surprised me. It depends on the board, but will probably go for a power hitter first. Of course I upped my training and advance scouting to max and decided to get out of the IFA market opting for Free Agents. The tough decision is whether to go after College or High School players or a mix in the draft. I just like College better, now I just hope it is a decent crop this season as it could be split or lean one way or the other. Medical went to $16M where it will stay.
I didn't go after any hitting in the Free Agent market as it turned out I had a decent bunch to start with from last season just relatively young. They are not going to power over anyone, but will be a defensive small ball lot that will win games. I did spend a lot of money on the pitching staff this year and it is showing so far.
Rule 5
Felix Embree. Not really wanting him but his future hitting style was worth a shot especially at lead off and there wasn't any pitching that was going to help available.
After examination of the team, the minor league cupboard is still pretty bare. Hoping the draft will help once again and keeping a close eye on the WW.
As play keeps going in the minors, I am keeping a watchful eye on my blue chip players waiting on that first improvement bump to see where they stand and a possible promotion to go with it.
The play of the ML team is about as I expected. They don't get worried about facing the big boys and play their game. What does happen is going to those plus away stadiums, the power just isn't there to keep up.
John Tamura - Injured again, what can you expect with a 31 health. Although he is a big bat that I lack, he will probably stay on the DL till someone else gets injured and I can bring him off and release him.
Duke Jackson - He showed improvement at AAA and it was decided to give him a chance as a call up for the injured John Tamura. So far so good in the pen.
Dicky Woo - I had enough of his antics in the pitching department today and I need a backup catcher so down to AAA he goes and will probably never see the ML again for the Sand Walkers.
Joe Clemens - Was brought up from the AAA deactive roster as the missing backup catcher. Why? Look at his durability, can only be a spot starter and backup with a good bat. Will be his last season and was held in ready reserve long enough. Will make a good DH when the time comes also. Should get 150 AB's in with 15 to 20 starts and 6 DH starts.
Okay what does that Econ 101 history lesson have to do with this game? I took the Sand Walkers team over last year (Season 10) as I wanted a team in the South division just so I could be in El Paso. Sounds like a dumb reason but it is true. The team had the fourth pick in the draft that is an effect. The cause is simple, the ML team was pathetic, some hitting and very little in the pitching department but low salary. The minors had very little in the cupboards also being another cause. Being a new owner I was more crippled with spending caps, another cause, as it is hard to discern some talent between good and borderline. So which cause and effect to fix as you can't fix three at the same time and keep another problem from brewing. It really takes two seasons to fix the cap problem and get them where you want, so nothing to fix there as it was set the best it could be, maxed out upwards.
Since the cupboard was bare, it was decided that it would be more prudent to start restocking the minors first. I could have tried to fix the ML team with some Free Agents, but that would not have been prudent because I needed too many. Too many is more than three by the way. So it was decided to go after at least two blue chip IFA prospects and hope for a good draft. That would be a start at restocking the minors with 5 to 8 players. Watching the Waiver Wire and maybe picking up another player or two also. Rule 5 is a way of picking up a good player or two for the future also. So, how did I do?
Rule 5
Benny Harnisch. Young Long reliever with emergency start capabilities with some room to grow.
IFA
Vin Acosta - Okay not a blue chip player but very cheap and if his defensive abilities are realized could make a good key position bench player.
Louie Duran - Was drafted as a 2B but best he could be is a RF, has some hitting upside. Depending on how he develops could be in the ML.
Midre Jose - Will progress through the ranks to AAA at least this year and find a Starting Rotation job next season. Well worth the money spent.
Draft
Alex Russell - 1st round pick that will probably need at least 3 seasons in the minors before being a starter at the ML level.
Billy Kinney - 3rd round pick that will need more time depending, but should be good as a 4th or 5th starter.
Analysis: Though not what I had hoped for in picking up 5 to 8 players but I did manage to pick up four good pitchers for the future. Coupled with the previous owners first round pitcher will give me a viable rotation in a season or two that could feature three Cy Young candidates. But I didn't come up with anything in the hitting department.
The Season 10 ML team was bad as expected using what was serviceable from the previous season and what was available in the minors. I really thought they would have been a little better than their record indicated. Looking back at the season, maybe I could have won more games if I had gotten a Free Agent or two as our 1-run record was 21-24. Would have it been wise to spend $10M to $15M on a couple players to win 10 to 15 games at most? The answer is probably not as it would have taken $20M or more to shore the problems and making trades was out of the question.
Season 11 budget was the easiest to set up, since I did get enough players to restock the minors as hoped. Though I do have the 3rd overall pick and I get the 40th as a supplemental also which surprised me. It depends on the board, but will probably go for a power hitter first. Of course I upped my training and advance scouting to max and decided to get out of the IFA market opting for Free Agents. The tough decision is whether to go after College or High School players or a mix in the draft. I just like College better, now I just hope it is a decent crop this season as it could be split or lean one way or the other. Medical went to $16M where it will stay.
I didn't go after any hitting in the Free Agent market as it turned out I had a decent bunch to start with from last season just relatively young. They are not going to power over anyone, but will be a defensive small ball lot that will win games. I did spend a lot of money on the pitching staff this year and it is showing so far.
Rule 5
Felix Embree. Not really wanting him but his future hitting style was worth a shot especially at lead off and there wasn't any pitching that was going to help available.
After examination of the team, the minor league cupboard is still pretty bare. Hoping the draft will help once again and keeping a close eye on the WW.
As play keeps going in the minors, I am keeping a watchful eye on my blue chip players waiting on that first improvement bump to see where they stand and a possible promotion to go with it.
The play of the ML team is about as I expected. They don't get worried about facing the big boys and play their game. What does happen is going to those plus away stadiums, the power just isn't there to keep up.
John Tamura - Injured again, what can you expect with a 31 health. Although he is a big bat that I lack, he will probably stay on the DL till someone else gets injured and I can bring him off and release him.
Duke Jackson - He showed improvement at AAA and it was decided to give him a chance as a call up for the injured John Tamura. So far so good in the pen.
Dicky Woo - I had enough of his antics in the pitching department today and I need a backup catcher so down to AAA he goes and will probably never see the ML again for the Sand Walkers.
Joe Clemens - Was brought up from the AAA deactive roster as the missing backup catcher. Why? Look at his durability, can only be a spot starter and backup with a good bat. Will be his last season and was held in ready reserve long enough. Will make a good DH when the time comes also. Should get 150 AB's in with 15 to 20 starts and 6 DH starts.
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