Jackson Holes vs Cleveland Katanas
The Katanas swept by Little Rock. The Holes escaped close calls with Charlotte. The season series was tied 5-5. The classic match up between number 1 and 2. Expect more 1 run games as the series should go 7 games. Cleveland is favored due to home field advantage.
Las Vegas 69ers vs Charleston Apologists
The Apologists fans held their breath against the feisty Herders. Did that 5th inning injury do KC in? The upstart 69ers, well I predicted an upset anyway, slithered by Chicago in 4 games. The season series was 6-4 in favor of Charleston. Can the 69ers pitching hold the Apologists at bay in Charleston is the question. An opening split will give Las Vegas a much needed boost. Charleston should be heavily favored but may need to pull a rabbit out of the hat to win in 7.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
The DCS
The Wild Cards prevailed in the AL while the Division winners prevailed in the NL.
Little Rock Pebbles vs Cleveland Katanas
The Pebbles got here by sweeping Boise in the first round. Cleveland of course was the best of show in the AL. The Katanas own the season series. Expect the games to be close with Cleveland heavily favored. This could be the upset special in the AL.
Charlotte Gooners vs Jackson Holes
The Gooners won 3 of 4 from Columbus to advance. Jackson was the second best team in the AL. Jackson won the season series but had problems with the Gooners in Charlotte. If Charlotte can split the opening two games, it could put Jackson in a Hole. Expect the series to go 5 games with Jackson favored.
Kansas City Cattle Herders vs Charleston Apologists
The Herders beat Nashville in 5 games to get here. Charleston was best of show in the NL. The season series was handily won by Charleston. Expect the heavily favored Apologists to win in 4 games.
Las Vegas 69ers vs Chicago Cosmos
The 69ers swept Austin to get here. Chicago was the second best team in the NL. Chicago won the season series. Expect a tough 5 game series with Chicago favored. Upset special in the NL.
Little Rock Pebbles vs Cleveland Katanas
The Pebbles got here by sweeping Boise in the first round. Cleveland of course was the best of show in the AL. The Katanas own the season series. Expect the games to be close with Cleveland heavily favored. This could be the upset special in the AL.
Charlotte Gooners vs Jackson Holes
The Gooners won 3 of 4 from Columbus to advance. Jackson was the second best team in the AL. Jackson won the season series but had problems with the Gooners in Charlotte. If Charlotte can split the opening two games, it could put Jackson in a Hole. Expect the series to go 5 games with Jackson favored.
Kansas City Cattle Herders vs Charleston Apologists
The Herders beat Nashville in 5 games to get here. Charleston was best of show in the NL. The season series was handily won by Charleston. Expect the heavily favored Apologists to win in 4 games.
Las Vegas 69ers vs Chicago Cosmos
The 69ers swept Austin to get here. Chicago was the second best team in the NL. Chicago won the season series. Expect a tough 5 game series with Chicago favored. Upset special in the NL.
Friday, April 24, 2009
Last Day of Season
It is the last day of the season! One of the things I do on this day is to sign my remaining draft picks regardless of how good they are. After doing that I look at the remaining Internationals to see if there is anything that could help next year. More or less it is a way to spend unused cash sitting around doing nothing. One never knows what one may stumble upon by accident by doing this. Though it doesn't have to be done today, it is the day I normally do it.
I always keep my Rookie roster full at the end of the season after promotions if I can, that way I have a player pool to draw upon for next season to handle unforeseen retirements in the upper levels. Also by doing that, I don't have to be quite as picky needing to pick up certain players during the draft next season and allows flexibility for the draft requirements.
Many ask why I do it. More or less it keeps them in the system to have more assets to draw on for next year. Not just me either, some will hit the waiver wire next year or maybe even this year as I will soon go through my teams to waive unwanted players. Doing this helps supply and demand for all, especially the low minors and really doesn't cost much. Many of those will become Free Agents next year.
When I go through my rosters I keep in mind several factors that determine who I release and I keep it at a minimum. Normally I take all players that doesn't have a chance to make it more than one more level that has a bad health rating or players that have a tendency to hit the DL often. I also look at the number of years they have under their belt and the level they are playing at and their capability to advance in the system. These guys usually have a tendency to retire in the off season anyway.
I always keep my Rookie roster full at the end of the season after promotions if I can, that way I have a player pool to draw upon for next season to handle unforeseen retirements in the upper levels. Also by doing that, I don't have to be quite as picky needing to pick up certain players during the draft next season and allows flexibility for the draft requirements.
Many ask why I do it. More or less it keeps them in the system to have more assets to draw on for next year. Not just me either, some will hit the waiver wire next year or maybe even this year as I will soon go through my teams to waive unwanted players. Doing this helps supply and demand for all, especially the low minors and really doesn't cost much. Many of those will become Free Agents next year.
When I go through my rosters I keep in mind several factors that determine who I release and I keep it at a minimum. Normally I take all players that doesn't have a chance to make it more than one more level that has a bad health rating or players that have a tendency to hit the DL often. I also look at the number of years they have under their belt and the level they are playing at and their capability to advance in the system. These guys usually have a tendency to retire in the off season anyway.
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Who'll Take The Last NL Wildcard?
With 6 games to go, only 2 games separate 5 teams for the second NL wildcard spot. Who's got the edge? Here's your betting guide and fearless prediction.
Austin (78-78): the bad news - they have 3 left with 107-49 Charleston, they've lost promising rookies Nap Myatt and Sid Selby to injury, and are an uninspiring 9-11 over their last 20. The only good news is they have a 1-game lead on 4 of the other 5 teams, but it's hard to see them winning more than 2 of their last 6. Odds: 30:1.
Oakland (78-78): snapped back from a 14-game losing streak earlier in the season, only to falter with a 9-11 over the last 20. They face 83-73 Las Vegas and 76-80 San Jose - 4-2 is very possible. Odds: 10:1.
Burlington (77-79): comes in on a 15-5 roll; they play 81-75 Kansas City and 69-87 Toledo. Can they go 5-1? That's probably what it will take. Odds: 18:1.
Sioux Falls (76-80): also comes in hot with 10 wins in the last eleven; those 6 losses to Burlington and El Paso on 4/17 and 4/18 were very costly. Will probably need a sweep of 96-60 Chicago and 72-84 Madison. Odds: 45:1.
San Jose (76-80): Has the best schedule remaining, with 66-90 Tacoma and 78-78 Oakland on tap. If they can sweep Tacoma, this race may come down to their Oakland series. Odds: 20:1.
Prediction: Austin loses 3 to Charleston, take the first 2 vs. El Paso, but lose their last game in extra innings to go 2-4 and finish 80-82.
Oakland sweeps Vegas but is swept by San Jose to finish 81-81.
Burlington goes 4-2 to tie Oakland at 81-81.
Sioux Falls gets only one with Chicago and comes up a game short at 80-82.
San Jose rips off an improbable sweep of Oakland to forge a three-way tie aat 81-81.
I have to go look up tiebreakers to finish the post - San Jose wins the season series against both Oakland and Burlington, and takes the wildcard!
Austin (78-78): the bad news - they have 3 left with 107-49 Charleston, they've lost promising rookies Nap Myatt and Sid Selby to injury, and are an uninspiring 9-11 over their last 20. The only good news is they have a 1-game lead on 4 of the other 5 teams, but it's hard to see them winning more than 2 of their last 6. Odds: 30:1.
Oakland (78-78): snapped back from a 14-game losing streak earlier in the season, only to falter with a 9-11 over the last 20. They face 83-73 Las Vegas and 76-80 San Jose - 4-2 is very possible. Odds: 10:1.
Burlington (77-79): comes in on a 15-5 roll; they play 81-75 Kansas City and 69-87 Toledo. Can they go 5-1? That's probably what it will take. Odds: 18:1.
Sioux Falls (76-80): also comes in hot with 10 wins in the last eleven; those 6 losses to Burlington and El Paso on 4/17 and 4/18 were very costly. Will probably need a sweep of 96-60 Chicago and 72-84 Madison. Odds: 45:1.
San Jose (76-80): Has the best schedule remaining, with 66-90 Tacoma and 78-78 Oakland on tap. If they can sweep Tacoma, this race may come down to their Oakland series. Odds: 20:1.
Prediction: Austin loses 3 to Charleston, take the first 2 vs. El Paso, but lose their last game in extra innings to go 2-4 and finish 80-82.
Oakland sweeps Vegas but is swept by San Jose to finish 81-81.
Burlington goes 4-2 to tie Oakland at 81-81.
Sioux Falls gets only one with Chicago and comes up a game short at 80-82.
San Jose rips off an improbable sweep of Oakland to forge a three-way tie aat 81-81.
I have to go look up tiebreakers to finish the post - San Jose wins the season series against both Oakland and Burlington, and takes the wildcard!
Saturday, April 18, 2009
Near The End Of The Season
Now is the time to check your minor league teams over for promotion purposes. Stagnated players tend to retire for the following season. You don't want a mass exodus of 30 or 40 players for the next season, they are hard to replace. Of course, you don't want to move players off a playoff team just yet either, but moving one or two blue chip players onto a playoff team has its advantages. I usually promote players after all my minor league teams are completely through with the season. Just remember to do it before the World Series is over!
A Study in Disparity?
I am not sure there is a disparity within the league after doing about an hour or so of looking around. The standings may show there is, but what I see is a few power park and neutral park teams in first place and more or less the rest beating each other up. What I came up with is mostly about the parks. The standings tell me most teams are not matching up with their home parks well. There isn't that many power parks in use as there are more true neutral parks. Negative parks, especially in the home run department are more prevalent. The league leaders report tells me there isn't many home runs being hit and doubles are more prevalent because of this. The good pitching is actually spread out pretty thin except for Cleveland. Defense is odd in the fact the number of double plays turned only shows a difference of just over a 100 between the worst and best. Normally, teams with the fewest errors have the least amount of double plays by the way. I guess fewer runners create fewer opportunities, but that doesn't seem as disproportionate here as in other worlds.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Around The Horn
The AL:
The Columbus Criminals have stolen their way into a comfortable 10 game lead in the North. New York and Syracuse still hold hope of catching them.
The Cleveland Katanas have already bought a new display case to hold their newest East division trophy.
The Jackson Holes have a comfy 14 game lead in the South and are eying the #1 seed which has Crump123 a bit upset.
The Boise Posse have the lead in the West for the time being, for how long is another story. San Diego, Portland and San Francisco could catch fire and make a run.
The Little Rock Pebbles currently have the inside track to one of the wild card spots. The Charlotte Gooners have the lead for the second spot but there are a host of others that could take it away.
The NL:
The Chicago Cosmos are lazily heading to the North title boasting a cloudy 20 game lead.
Kansas City Cattle Herders have the lead in the East, but the three other division foes are figuring ways around the roundup.
The Charleston Apologists have said they are sorry for winning, but that is the way it goes and with a 7 game lead in the South. The Nashville Kool Kats may have other things to say before it is over.
The Las Vegas 69ers have licked their opponents into a 6 game lead in the West. Oakland and San Jose are in position to make a run.
The Nashville Kool Kats have the first wild card spot pretty well wrapped up if they can't catch Charleston. The second spot could also be taken by a host of teams.
The Columbus Criminals have stolen their way into a comfortable 10 game lead in the North. New York and Syracuse still hold hope of catching them.
The Cleveland Katanas have already bought a new display case to hold their newest East division trophy.
The Jackson Holes have a comfy 14 game lead in the South and are eying the #1 seed which has Crump123 a bit upset.
The Boise Posse have the lead in the West for the time being, for how long is another story. San Diego, Portland and San Francisco could catch fire and make a run.
The Little Rock Pebbles currently have the inside track to one of the wild card spots. The Charlotte Gooners have the lead for the second spot but there are a host of others that could take it away.
The NL:
The Chicago Cosmos are lazily heading to the North title boasting a cloudy 20 game lead.
Kansas City Cattle Herders have the lead in the East, but the three other division foes are figuring ways around the roundup.
The Charleston Apologists have said they are sorry for winning, but that is the way it goes and with a 7 game lead in the South. The Nashville Kool Kats may have other things to say before it is over.
The Las Vegas 69ers have licked their opponents into a 6 game lead in the West. Oakland and San Jose are in position to make a run.
The Nashville Kool Kats have the first wild card spot pretty well wrapped up if they can't catch Charleston. The second spot could also be taken by a host of teams.
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
Position Player Fatigue
There is a simple formula I use for position players to determine how many plate appearances a player can have during a season. If a player plays the entire season it is about 730 plate appearances, plate appearance is not the same as an AB by the way. If you take 730 and multiply it by the players durability as a percentage, it will give you the approximate number of plate appearances a player can have during a season. EX: 730 x .84 = 614. In the case of Charles Bottalico, he has already had 506 plate appearances. Although that is not quite 614 but his fatigue level will drop because that number will be grossly exceeded before the end of the season at the present rate. It leaves him about 108 plate appearances (or about 24 games, divide 108 by 4.5) til the end of the season as there are 46 games left. To get his fatigue level back to 100% it may take about 10 to 15 games or more.
The rule of thumb I use during the season is to rest a player periodically like so:
Durability:
90 or above - rest once every 15 to 20 games. Equates to about 10 playing days off.
80 to 90 - rest once every 10 games. Equates to about 16 playing days off.
70 to 80 - rest twice every 10 games or so. Equates to about 32 playing days off.
below 70 - rest once every 5 to 8 games. Equates to about 40 or more playing days off, normally for catchers or low durability bench players.
Also, players in the top half of the batting order will see more plate appearances and fatigue more quickly than the bottom half. It is better to rest them during the season because they are needed most at the end of the season especially during a playoff run. If the fatigue level drops below 100%, I try to rest them for two days or I end up using them every other day.
Adverse effects on fatigue is a player will not play as well and is susceptible to injury. For the minors it says that fatigue will help increase a players durability during rollover, but do you risk injury to a future superstar player for that reason? I try not to allow minor league players to drop below 95% as a rule, it just isn't worth the risk. Another thing I don't pay much attention to in the minors is playing players out of position. Maybe not the coolest thing to do, but it is better to rest a player than being forced to do it anyway because of injury.
If you are wondering how you can find out the number of plate appearances a player has: Go to Stats/Awards in the World drop down and click on Player Statistics and use the Extended function in Batting.
The rule of thumb I use during the season is to rest a player periodically like so:
Durability:
90 or above - rest once every 15 to 20 games. Equates to about 10 playing days off.
80 to 90 - rest once every 10 games. Equates to about 16 playing days off.
70 to 80 - rest twice every 10 games or so. Equates to about 32 playing days off.
below 70 - rest once every 5 to 8 games. Equates to about 40 or more playing days off, normally for catchers or low durability bench players.
Also, players in the top half of the batting order will see more plate appearances and fatigue more quickly than the bottom half. It is better to rest them during the season because they are needed most at the end of the season especially during a playoff run. If the fatigue level drops below 100%, I try to rest them for two days or I end up using them every other day.
Adverse effects on fatigue is a player will not play as well and is susceptible to injury. For the minors it says that fatigue will help increase a players durability during rollover, but do you risk injury to a future superstar player for that reason? I try not to allow minor league players to drop below 95% as a rule, it just isn't worth the risk. Another thing I don't pay much attention to in the minors is playing players out of position. Maybe not the coolest thing to do, but it is better to rest a player than being forced to do it anyway because of injury.
If you are wondering how you can find out the number of plate appearances a player has: Go to Stats/Awards in the World drop down and click on Player Statistics and use the Extended function in Batting.
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